Actuarial pricing, capital modelling and reserving

Pricing Squad


Issue 14 -- May 2017

Welcome back to Pricing Squad!

Pricing Squad is a newsletter for fellow pricing practitioners and actuaries in general insurance.

Today's issue is about Pricing Seminar 2017.


Cats and dogs at the Pricing Seminar 2017

Any plans for the 6th June? Some great talks and workshops are scheduled for the Pricing Seminar on that day!

"Cat people" vs "dog people" -- a model-free alternative for pricing unreported risk factors will build on a popular topic covered by this newsletter in September 2016.

Personal lines pricing reviews depend on claim models, conversion models and elasticity models. These models take long time to build, introduce model risk and inaccuracy.

But reviews can also rely on a model-free framework. Here, business mix, premium and claim cost changes are derived directly from historical data to improve accuracy and efficiency bypassing the modelling stage.

An added benefit of this approach is that it automatically captures all effects related to unreported or difficult to use factors such as: credit score, gender, ethnicity, IQ, health, addictions and of course pet preference :-).

I will show an application to business mix, loss cost, life time value, market changes and a case study.

A new development since the 2016 Pricing Squad post is the application to lost cost predictions.

From the workshop you will learn the "randomised interpolation" algorithm and the complete pricing cycle based on it, how to predict business mix changes in absence of independent variables and you will see benchmarks comparing model-free pricing to traditional GLM approach.

I hope to see you there! (The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries still has a few spaces available.)


Do you need support?

If you need access to pricing tools to radically simplify your work and deliver reduced loss ratio quickly, or if you are simply looking for an actuarial contractor, get in touch.

Thank you for reading, and have a great day,
Jan Iwanik, FIA PhD


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